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Photo of an elderly women and carer laughing

Work Package 4


Outputs will feed into the care pathways model (WP10) and also allow estimation of life expectancies with critical, short and long interval need, and disability-free life expectancies.

Where are we at now?

Micro-simulation epidemiological model

A working prototype of the model has been completed. This includes:

  • Harmonisation of all the variables from the 3 data sources (CFAS, ELSA, US) with the exception of alcohol use and social engagement.

  • Modelling of transition probabilities for all variables

  • Production of life and health expectancies


Example output on care needs by level of cognitive impairment has been passed to WP3.

The broad architecture of the model and first results on numbers with individual disease and care needs have been presented at:

  1. British Society of Population Studies (BSPS) annual meeting in Winchester 12-14 September 2016, and

  2. The Festival of Evidence, a two day meeting on simulation in healthcare organised by The Cumberland Initiative in Slough 5-6 October 2016.

Carol Jagger

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