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Photo of an elderly women and carer laughing

Work Package 4

 

Outputs will feed into the care pathways model (WP10) and also allow estimation of life expectancies with critical, short and long interval need, and disability-free life expectancies.

Where are we at now?

Micro-simulation epidemiological model

A working prototype of the model has been completed. This includes:

  • Harmonisation of all the variables from the 3 data sources (CFAS, ELSA, US) with the exception of alcohol use and social engagement.

  • Modelling of transition probabilities for all variables

  • Production of life and health expectancies

  

Example output on care needs by level of cognitive impairment has been passed to WP3.

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The broad architecture of the model and first results on numbers with individual disease and care needs have been presented at:

  1. British Society of Population Studies (BSPS) annual meeting in Winchester 12-14 September 2016, and

  2. The Festival of Evidence, a two day meeting on simulation in healthcare organised by The Cumberland Initiative in Slough 5-6 October 2016.

Carol Jagger

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