Work Package 10
This modelling aims to simulate care pathways, including transitions between different packages of care, over the course of individuals’ lives.
WORK PACKAGE 10
We are developing a care pathways model to enable the impacts of different interventions on use of services and costs to be incorporated in the PSSRU macro-simulation model. The aim is to simulate care pathways, including transitions between different packages of care, over the course of individuals’ lives as they live with dementia.
Activities within WP4 are contributing to this modelling, as well as data from CFAS, ELSA and the new cohort that explore relationships between health state and use of unpaid care and formal services, controlling for other user characteristics.
The outputs of this model, which will feed into the macro-simulation model, will be information on packages of care associated with particular sets of need-related circumstances, estimates of life-time use of care services and associated life-time costs of care. The analyses will estimate life-time costs to the NHS, social services, people living with dementia and carers of each care pathway associated with different individual clinical and other circumstances.
Interventions being examined include medications, cognitive stimulation and other therapies, exercise programmes, nutrition advice, telecare/telehealth, community-capacity-building, respite and training for carers.
This WP will produce projections to 2040 of the numbers of older people with dementia in England, their needs for care and support, and associated public and private expenditure, together with projected outcomes and costs of a range of interventions to prevent or delay dementia incidence, slow symptom development, provide treatment and care, and support carers.
Raphael Wittenberg, Martin Knapp, Adelina Comas-Herrera, Sube Banerjee